330 AXNT20 KNHC 301738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 PM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 30/1500 UTC is near 33.6N 52.6W. Leslie is moving SW, or 230 degrees, 03 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the center in the E semicircle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/35W from 16N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong ITCZ rainshowers are from 11N to 12N between 22W and 26W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/51W from 18N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, probably with the ITCZ, are from 08N to 10N between 53W and 57W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 40W and 53W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/74W from 20N southward. The wave is moving through an area of upper level SW wind flow, and broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow. Widely scattered moderate to isolated are between 64W and 74W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong rainshowers are to the SW of the line that runs from 16N79W to 12N74W. A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 20N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 22N southward from 93W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N25W and 06N34W. The ITCZ is along 06N36W 04N44W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 06N between 08W and 11W, and within 150 nm on either side of the lines that run from 12N17W to 09N25W, and from 09N32W to 09N39W to 06N42W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 15N southward from 44W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is digging through Texas from the east central sections into northern and north central sections of Mexico. A separate surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N to 23N about 90 nm to the NNE of the coast of Mexico. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coast of Louisiana between 91W and 94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coasts of Texas and Mexico from 23N to 28N. Much of the Gulf of Mexico that is from 29N southward and from 89W westward is covered by upper level cyclonic wind flow. This same area of upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 68W westward, and the Caribbean Sea to the NW of the line that runs from Hispaniola to eastern Honduras. Surface high pressure will prevail in the forecast area. A surface trough will develop each evening in the Yucatan peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf of Mexico overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 68W westward, and the Caribbean Sea to the NW of the line that runs from Hispaniola to eastern Honduras. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida between 75W and 84W, between the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from Hispaniola to eastern Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds will persist in the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea through Tuesday morning. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the entire basin during the remainder of the period. A surface low pressure center is forecast to develop off the coast of Nicaragua on Thursday, and it is expected to track NNE to the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea next weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is along 31N/32N from 62W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 29N northward from 62W westward. Surface cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward between 43W and 64W. This cyclonic wind flow is associated with Tropical Storm Leslie. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 24N northward between 47W and 63W. Other widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are just to the east, from 20N northward between 35W and 47W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 68W westward. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida between 75W and 84W, between the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida. Tropical Storm Leslie was near 33.6N 52.6W 991 mb at 11 AM EDT. Large swell generated from Leslie will affect the forecast waters through Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT