137 AXNT20 KNHC 300002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 802 PM EDT Sat Sep 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 34.1N 51.3W at 29/2100 UTC or 690 nm ENE of Bermuda moving SW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A slower forward motion is anticipated by Sunday night, and Leslie is forecast to move very little on Monday and Tuesday. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next few days. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-35N between 48W-53W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 28W from 02N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 10N, where the wave meets the monsoon trough. This feature shows up well in the Total Precipitable Water animation, and continues to have a sharp trough at the surface as seen on the latest scatterometer pass. A tropical wave has its axis along 51W from 07N-19N, moving W at 10 kt. The TPW imagery shows a moisture maximum E of the wave's axis. There is a trough in the GFS 700 mb analyses, but little signature is seen at the surface. Scattered showers are developing within 75 nm to the east of the wave's axis between 10N-13N. A tropical wave extends across the eastern Caribbean, with axis along 70W and between 07N-19N. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the eastern Caribbean mainly east of 70W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-17N between 65W-72W. A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean along 90W from 21N southward. A pronounced 700 mb trough in the GFS analysis is noted with the wave, but little signature of the wave is seen at the surface. The wave, along with the monsoon trough, is enhancing scattered showers within 180 nm of the wave's axis mainly south of 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W and continues SW to near 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 05N31W to 07N50W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N54W and extends to the coast of South America near 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 10N-13N between 18W-23W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 04N-08N between 32W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a stationary front extends from S Mississippi to SW Louisiana. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the NW Gulf from 25N-31N between 89W-97W. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 23N97W to 19N94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the trough. Current winds across the basin are gentle to moderate. Little change is expected over the gulf waters during the next couple of days. Seas will remain below 8 ft through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. Recent scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate trades prevail across most of the basin except in the vicinity of the tropical wave across the eastern Caribbean. Fresh winds prevail mainly east of 66W. Large northerly swell associated with Leslie will affect the tropical Atlantic waters tonight through Sunday, building seas to 10-11 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are currently between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough enters the forecast region near 30N40W then continues SW to 20N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 21N-33N between 38W-47W. This feature was formerly associated with Leslie. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered N of E Cuba near 22N76W. Scattered showers are from 20N-27N between 70W-80W to include most of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, a large upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N49W. There is a considerable amount of upper level diffluence E of the center enhancing convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa