406 AXNT20 KNHC 291202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 802 AM EDT Sat Sep 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Sub-tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 35.2N 50.3W at 29/0900 UTC, or 740 nm ENE of Bermuda, moving SW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A slower southwestward motion is expected during the next several days. Some strengthening is forecast during this time period also. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-35N between 47W-52W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 25W from 03N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave axis south of 10N. This system shows up well in the Total Precipitable Water animation, and also has a sharp trough at the surface as seen by the latest ASCAT scatterometer pass. A tropical wave is along 48W from 02N-17N, moving W at 15 kt. The TPW imagery shows a maximum E of the wave axis and there is a trough in the GFS 700 mb analyses, but little signature is seen at the surface. Scattered showers are developing within 75 nm to the east of the wave's axis between 10N-13N. The remnants of Kirk were analyzed as a tropical wave, with axis along 67W and between 07N-19N. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the eastern Caribbean mainly east of 70W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the wave's axis from 11N- 17N between 61W- 67W. A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean along 86W from 21N southward. A pronounced 700 mb trough in the GFS analysis is noted with the wave, but little signature of the wave is seen at the surface. The wave, along with the monsoon trough, is enhancing scattered showers within 180 nm of the wave's axis mainly south of 17N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 15N17W and continues SW to near 06N24W to 05N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N34W to 09N46W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N46W and extends to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 22W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a stationary front extends from S Mississippi to SW Louisiana. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. Current winds across the Gulf are moderate breeze or weaker out of the east. The frontal boundary should drift E today with little change to the Gulf winds during the next couple of days. Seas will remain below 8 ft through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The remnants of Kirk are now a tropical wave, while another wave is moving across the western Caribbean. See the Tropical Wave section above for details. Recent scatterometer data indicate generally easterly moderate breeze or weaker winds ahead of the remnants of Kirk, except for an outflow boundary enhancement of winds to 25 kt in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Expect mainly moderate to fresh winds through early next week. Large northerly swell associated with Leslie will affect the tropical Atlantic waters tonight through Sunday, building seas to 10 or 11 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are currently between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N40W then continues SW to 21N52W. This front is associated with Leslie centered N of the area. Please, see the Special Features Section above for more details. Large swell generated by Leslie is expected to propagate across the waters east of 75W tonight, reaching the Bahamas the waters N of Hispaniola and the Atlantic Passages E of la Mona Passage by early Saturday, and the north and central coast of Florida later on Saturday. A ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure located near 32N70W across the western Atlantic reaching Florida. Another ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic E of the aforementioned front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa/ERA