087 AXNT20 KNHC 290517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 116 AM EDT Sat Sep 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Remnants Of Kirk are centered near 15.1N 65.8W at 29/0300 UTC or 170 nm SSW of St. Croix moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The remnants of Kirk is now a tropical wave along 66W south of 19N, with a gale area from 14N to 16N between 63W and 66W. The remnants of Kirk are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches across St. Croix and eastern Puerto Rico overnight through Saturday. The gale is forecast to persist until 29/1200 UTC. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N-17N between 60W-66W. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 35.7N 49.4W at 29/0300 UTC or 790 nm ENE of Bermuda moving WSW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A slower west-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the next several days. Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 30N-36N between 47W-52W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 24W from 03N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave axis south of 07N. This system shows up well in the Total Precipitable Water animation, and also has a sharp trough at the surface as seen by the ASCAT scatterometer pass. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 23W-28W. A tropical wave is along 47W from 02N-17N, moving W at 15 kt. The TPW imagery shows a maximum E of the wave axis and there is a trough in the GFS 700 mb analyses, but little signature is seen at the surface. No significant convection is currently associated with the wave. A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea along 83W from 21N southward. A pronounced 700 mb trough in the GFS analysis is noted with the wave, but little signature of the wave is seen at the surface. The wave, along with the monsoon trough, is helping to induce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 180 nm of the wave axis south of 14N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 15N17W and continues SW to near 06N24W to 05N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N34W to 09N46W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N46W and extends to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 28W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a cold front extends from S Mississippi to SW Louisiana. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. Current winds across the Gulf are moderate breeze or weaker out of the east. The frontal boundary should drift E Saturday with little change to the Gulf winds during the next couple of days. Seas will remain below 8 ft through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The remnants of Kirk is now a tropical wave with a gale area. See the Special Features section above. Another tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea. See the Tropical Wave section for details. Recent scatterometer data indicate generally easterly moderate breeze or weaker winds ahead of the remnants of Kirk, except for an outflow boundary enhancement of winds to 25 kt in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Expect mainly moderate to fresh winds through early next week. Large northerly swell associated with Leslie will affect the tropical Atlantic waters tonight through Sunday, building seas to 10 or 11 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are currently between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N40W then continues SW to 21N53W. This front is associated with Leslie centered N of the area. Please, see Special Features Section for more details. Large swell generated by Leslie is expected to propagate across the waters east of 75W tonight, reaching the Bahamas the waters N of Hispaniola and the Atlantic Passages E of la Mona Passage by early Saturday, and the north and central coast of Florida later on Saturday. A ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure located near 32N69W across the western Atlantic reaching Florida. Another ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic E of the aforementioned cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa