774 AXNT20 KNHC 280005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Kirk is near 14.2N 60.2W at 27/2100 UTC. Kirk is moving toward the WNW or 290 degrees 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Kirk is forecast to become a tropical depression Friday night, and degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Sunday. Strong winds and heavy rain are expected to spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight. Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday. Currently, satellite imagery indicates numerous moderate to strong convection within 150 nm SE quadrant of center, and numerous moderate to isolated strong convection elsewhere from 11.5N-15.5N between 55W-60W. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles west of the Azores, remains a powerful non-tropical low with storm-force winds. The associated shower activity is gradually becoming better organized, and Leslie is expected to again become a subtropical storm, or possibly a tropical storm, tonight or Friday while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph over the north-central Atlantic. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 30W from 03N-19W. Limited convection is near the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 18N39W to 04N41W. Scattered showers are ahead and behind the wave axis, mainly from 09N-12N between 35W and 43W. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 78W from 20N southward. The wave is helping to induce some showers activity over Jamaica, and also over the SW Caribbean along with the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to 06N35W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 15W and 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the NW Gulf are associated with a cold front that extends from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico near 25N97W. The front will stall over the NW Gulf and enhance shower and thunderstorm activity through Fri before it weakens and drifts north of the area. Otherwise, high pres NE of the region will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas less than 4 ft across most of the Gulf waters through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical STorm Kirk will bring strong winds and heavy rain over portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight. Please, see Special Features section for details. A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea. See Tropical Wave section for details. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the Caribbean waters through early next week. Large northerly swell will affect the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N32W to 22N50W to 26N70W. The front is associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, which is centered N of area near 37N43.5W. Please, see Special Features Section for more details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie. Large swell generated by the remnants of Leslie, now an intense low pressure system over the north-central Atlc, is expected to spread east of 75W by Fri night, then to north Florida and E of the Bahamas early next week. High pressure is build southward across the west-central Atlantic with a 1025 mb located near 37N70W. Another ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic T of the aforementioned cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR