223 AXNT20 KNHC 240522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...Special Features... Tropical Depression Kirk centered near 9.4N 35.5W at 24/0300 UTC or 730 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-14N between 33W-39W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 33.3N 48.5W at 24/0300 UTC or 1080 nm W of the Azores moving SW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-33N between 45W-50W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave corresponds nicely with a maximum in TPW imagery. Model analyses depict an associated 700 mb trough along 50W. Scattered showers are located from 10N-14N between 49W-51W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 93W from 08N-21N, moving west at 10 kt. The 700 mb trough associated with this wave is well depicted in model guidance, and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in its environment. Scattered moderate convection is south of 20N between 90W-97W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 10N24W. The ITCZ begins near 10N24W to 10N30W, then resumes west of T.S. Kirk near 07N38W to 05N49W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave and Kirk, scattered showers are noted within 75 nm north of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is centered over the south-central Gulf near 23N89W. Isolated showers prevail is E of 89W. An upper-level high is centered over N Mexico near 26N104W. Northerly upper-level flow is over the NW Gulf. A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the Bay of Campeche with convection. Refer to the section above for more details. At the surface, a cold front extends from E Texas near 29N94W to 25N94W to NE Mexico near 23N98W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche along 93W. Expect the front to stall and dissipate today. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail across most of the basin through the middle of next week. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula each evening, shift W over the SW Gulf each night, then dissipate by the morning hours. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany this trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with diffluence aloft continues to enhance scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 78W-84W. Plenty of moisture will persist over the extreme southwest Caribbean, Panama and Costa Rica. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the central Caribbean through today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Currently, there is a tropical depression, a tropical wave, and a subtropical storm over the Atlantic. See the sections above for details. A broad 1011 mb low is centered near 28N70W. A surface trough runs from 31N68W to the low center to 27N78W. Scattered showers are along the trough and near the low. Environmental conditions are forecast to become slightly more conducive for development during the next couple of days while the system moves west- northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase, limiting the chances for additional development, while the system moves northward near the southeastern United States coast. This feature has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. To the east, a weakening stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N41W to 25N46W to 24N57W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm on either side of the front. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 40N24W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA