501 AXNT20 KNHC 060015 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018 Corrected Atlantic Ocean section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Florence is centered near 22.7N 46.6W at 05/2100 UTC, which is about 965 nm ENE of the northern Leeward Islands or 1125 nm ESE of Bermuda moving NW at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. The maximum sustained are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Florence has continued to intensify during the day and early evening as evident by its very symmetrical cloud pattern and clear eye feature. The conventional IR imagery and water vapor imagery reveal cirrus clouds fanning outward over all quadrants of the cyclone as a well pronounced anticyclone above it provides a medium for excellent exhaust of its deep convection. Latest imagery shows scattered strong convection within 60 nm of the center, except 30 nm in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is located to the NE of the center from 23N to 25N between 44W and 46W. The latest NHC advisory forecasts Florence to continue in its present motion through Thu, before it turns to the west- northwest Thu night as it weakens. Public Advisories for Florence are issued under WMO/AWIPS headers WTNT31 KNHC/ MIATCPAT1. Forecast Advisories for Florence are issued under WMO/AWIPS headers WTNT21 KNHC/MIATCMAT1. Tropical Depression Gordon is inland over central Mississippi centered near 32.8N 90.7W, which is about 45 miles NW of Jackson. It is moving NW, or 320 degrees at 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. The threat continues for heavy rain and flooding as Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, central Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through early Sat. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring north of 29N between 85W and 88W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 27N between 85W and 91W. Future information on Gordon can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. For specific local information on Gordon for the affected states, please refer to products issued by your located National Weather Service office. A tropical wave has its axis along 29W from 03N to 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure center is analyzed on the wave axis at 13N29N. Deep convection associated with this system is gradually increasing. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered strong convection in clusters ahead of this system from 10N to 13N between 30W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the low in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of line from 15N29N to 14N32W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be increasingly conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 84W south of 22N to across northeastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua and to across Costa Rica reaching to the eastern Pacific near 05N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm east of the wave axis from 10N to 11N, and within 120 nm east of the wave axis from 21N to 22N. Scattered moderate convection is over much of northern and central Honduras, and over just about the entire country of Costa Rica. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere within 60 nm of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is also within 120 nm east of the wave axis from 21N to 22N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 19N16W, to the 1008 mb low that is associated with the Special Features section tropical wave along 29N. It continues from this system to 09N34W and to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 08N46W and to 07N52W. Outside convection described with the Special Features tropical wave and low along 29W, only scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 32W and 35W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the far eastern Atlantic offshore the coast of Africa from 09N to 13N east of 20W to inland the coast of Africa. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Upper-level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the western one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is concentrated over the western gulf to the west of 94W and south of 27N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere across the gulf. A weak surface ridge will build from the Carolinas to the coast of Texas in the wake of Gordon. Expect gentle to moderate easterly winds and modest seas into early next week. The exception will be fresh winds pulsing off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly during the late evening hours, due to a daily trough that sets up in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the line that runs from Puerto Rico to La Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. The easternmost part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond western sections of Costa Rica. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 11N to 12N between 77W and 80W. A relatively weak surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds in most of the region through late Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected Please read the Special Features section above for details about Hurricane Florence. A second area of interest pertains to a developing area of broad low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. An upper-level trough extends from near Bermuda to a nearly stationary broad upper-level low at 26N72W, and southwest to the Windward Passage. From there it continues to Nicaragua and Costa Rica and to southwestern Caribbean Sea. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the Greater Antilles northward from 60W westward. A surface trough is analyzed from near 31N60W to 25N64.5W to just northeast of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. Satellite imagery shows an increasing area of scattered showers and thunderstorms from 23N to 30N between 66W and 74W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen south of 22N between 66W and 70W. A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds across the area through Sunday night. Easterly swell from Hurricane Florence will move into the open waters east of the Bahamas from late tonight through Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT/Aguirre