434 AXNT20 KNHC 050552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 AM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Florence is centered near 20.7N 43.9W at 05/0300 UTC, which is about 1095 nm E of the northern Leeward Islands or 1315 nm ESE of Bermuda moving WNW at 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. The maximum sustained winds have increased to 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Satellite imagery shows the overall cloud pattern of Florence is very symmetrical and rather compact in size. A small eye, 15 nm in diameter, is evident in the imagery. The imagery shows scattered to numerous strong convection within 60 nm of the center, except for 90 nm in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate within 30 nm of a line from 23N42W to 22N44W denote an outer rainband. Latest NHC forecast has Florence continuing on a WNW motion through Wed night before it takes a northward turn on Thu. Florence is forecast to strengthen slightly through Wed morning, then begin to weaken afterwards through Fri. Public Advisories on Florence are issued under WMO/AWIPS headers WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1. Forecast Advisories are issued under WMO/AWIPS headers WTNT21 KNHC/MIATCMAT1. Tropical Storm Gordon is crossing the coast near 30.3N 88.4W at 05/0300 UTC, which is about 25 nm ESE of Biloxi, Mississippi or 30 nm SSW of Mobile, Alabama. Gordon is moving NW or 315 degrees at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Latest satellite imagery and NWS radar imagery show scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 60 nm of the center in the N semicircle and 30 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is to the southeast of Gordon over the north- central gulf waters within 30 nm of a line from 28N88W to 29N86W. Deep convection noted a few hours ago over much of the Florida panhandle and over sections of northern Florida haver decreased significantly, except for over the far western Florida panhandle. Now that Gordon is moving inland, the latest NHC forecast calls for it to weaken rapidly to a depression by this evening near the northeastern Louisiana/Mississippi border. Public Advisories on Gordon are issued under the WMO/AWIPS headers WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2. Forecast advisories on Gordon are issued under WMO/AWIPS headers WTNT22 KNHC/MIATCMAT2. A strong tropical wave has its axis extending from near 04N26W to 13N26W and to near 19N24W, with a 1008 mb low along the wave axis near 11N25W. This system depicts a broad area of low pressure with disorganized cloudiness. Deep convection, for the time being, is rather limited. It is observed as that of scattered strong type intensity within 30 nm of a line from 17N22W to 15N25W to 13N27W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 12.5N29W. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 77W/78W south of 21N. The wave is moving under a NE to SW oriented cyclonic shear axis that stretches from an elongated cyclonic circulation well north of the Caribbean southwestward to central Hispaniola, to near 15N76W and to central Panama. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is moving quickly westward ahead of the wave just south of central Cuba from 19N to 21N between the wave and 82W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 15N to 18N between the wave and 81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over and near the Windward Passage. The northern portion of an eastern Pacific tropical wave reaches along 96W northward to the far southwest Gulf of Mexico to near 21N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the wave from 21N to 23.5N between 96W and 97W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W to the 1007 mb low associated with the broad area of low pressure described above under Special Features, and continues to 09N31W to 10N43W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N43W to 08N50W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 240 nm S of the trough between the coast of Africa and 18W. This activity spreads inland the coast for about 180 nm. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on Tropical Storm Gordon. An upper-level inverted trough is to the west of Gordon, from southeastern Louisiana to an upper-level cyclonic circulation just northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N91W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche. An upper-level ridge extends from southwestern Louisiana to inland northeastern Mexico. Aside from convection associated with Tropical Storm Gordon, the availability of ample moisture along with the presence of the upper trough and low is allowing for the atmosphere to be unstable over much of the western and central gulf waters. As a result, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen west of 90W, with the most of the activity mainly occurring to the west of 94W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere over the remainder of the gulf. The shower and thunderstorm activity should remain quite active through this evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level cyclonic shear axis is noted on water vapor imagery extending in NE to SW fashion from an elongated cyclonic circulation well north of the Caribbean southwestward to central Hispaniola, to near 15N76W and to central Panama. This feature is interacting with the tropical wave along 77W/78W initiating deep convection just south of central Cuba as described above under the Tropical Waves section. Otherwise, isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the remainder of the Caribbean west of 79W, while isolated showers are east of 79W. The easternmost sector of the eastern Pacific monsoon stretches along 09N/10N to across northern Panama, to the far SW Caribbean, and to northwestern Colombia. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 09N-10N east of 81W to inland northwestern Colombia. The tropical wave along 77W/78W will move across the rest of the central Caribbean through this morning, then across the western Caribbean later on Wed and through Fri. The gradient associated with a relatively weak surface ridge, that is to the north of the region, will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds mostly everywhere, through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on Hurricane Florence and on a new area of broad low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic with a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation. An elongated upper-level cyclonic circulation is near 26N66W, with a trough extending southwestward to Hispaniola. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the area north of 19N between 57W and 77W. At the surface, a trough is analyzed from near 21N63W to 31N60W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 22N between 61W and 70W. Isolated showers and weak isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 59W. Strong high pressure to the north and northeast of Hurricane Florence is suppressing the atmosphere environment, maintaining it pretty stable over the eastern Atlantic, except near the broad area of low pressure as described above. A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds across the area through the next few days. Easterly swell from Hurricane Florence will move into the open waters east of the Bahamas beginning late this afternoon through Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre