612 AXNT20 KNHC 030519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 119 AM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Florence... Tropical Storm Florence is centered near 17.9N 35.9W at 03/0300 UTC or 690 nm WNW of The Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm over the east semicircle of the center. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven is centered near 23.4N 78.7W at 03/0300 UTC or 150 nm ESE of Marathon Florida moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A surface trough extends from 27N77W to the low center. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 22N-28N between 75W-80W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean along 67W and has been progressing west at 20 kt. Only isolated moderate convection is currently flaring along the northern portion of the wave, and a cluster of showers follows the wave within 120 nm of 20N60W. A tropical wave extends east of the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras with axis along 86W between 08N-20N. This wave is moving west at 15 kt and is accompanied by scattered moderate convection affecting portions of Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the west coast of Africa at 18N16W to 14N31W where it loses identity in the broad cyclonic circulation associated with tropical storm Florence. The monsoon trough develops southwest of Florence near 14N38W and extends southwest to 11N46W, where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues west to 11N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 75 nm south of the monsoon trough between 17W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on a surface low with the potential to become a tropical cyclone as it tracks north across the eastern gulf waters. Otherwise, weak surface ridging prevails across the basin and is expected to continue for the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information about two tropical waves currently moving across the basin. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection north of 16N between 79W-86W. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong nocturnal trades forecast along the northwest coast of Colombia overnight, and then again briefly on Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information about T.S Florence and a potential tropical cyclone located north of Cuba. A surface trough was analyzed from 28N60W to 23N55W with scattered moderate convection between 52W-61W. Another surface trough is located from 17N62W to 20N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough between 57W-64W affecting the Leeward Islands. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA