089 AXNT20 KNHC 022340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 740 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Florence... Tropical Storm Florence is centered near 17.4N 34.6W at 02/2100 UTC or 700 nm W-NW of the southernmost Cabo Verde Island, moving W-NW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm over the east semicircle of the center. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for additional details. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven is centered near 22.7N 77.3W at 02/2100 UTC or 240 nm E-SE of Marathon Florida moving W-NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm over the east semicircle of the center. The system is forecast to cross the Florida Keys on Mon and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tue, and then continue toward the north-central Gulf Coast on Tue night and Wed. This system will produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across the central and northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or two. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean along 65W and has been progressing west at 20 kt. Only isolated moderate convection is currently flaring along the northern portion of the wave affecting the Virgin Islands, and a large cluster of based scattered moderate isolated strong convection follows the wave within 120 nm of 20N60W. A tropical wave extends east from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras with axis along 85W. This wave is moving west at 15 kt and is accompanied by isolated moderate to strong convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the west coast of Africa at 14N17W to 16N26W where it loses identity in the broad cyclonic circulation associated with tropical storm Florence. The monsoon trough develops southwest of Florence near 12N36W and extends southwest to 08N44W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues west to the coast of South America at 09N61W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of a line from 13N13W to 12N22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for details on a surface low with the potential to become a tropical cyclone as it tracks north across the eastern gulf waters. Otherwise, weak surface ridging is expected across the western gulf waters for the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the tropical waves section above. Otherwise,fresh to locally strong nocturnal trades forecast along the northwest coast of Colombia overnight, and then again briefly on Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information about T.S Florence and a potential tropical cyclone over the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of 27N55W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Nelson