153 AXNT20 KNHC 021214 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 814 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Florence... Tropical Storm Florence is centered near 16.5N 31.4W at 02/0900 UTC or 420 nm WNW of The Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-18N between 30W-33W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...West Atlantic... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little, if any, development is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 59W from 08N- 21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. This position was based on satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers are noted from 15N-20N between 53W-62W. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 80W from 09N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave location is based on satellite imagery, atmospheric soundings, and model guidance. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are south of central Cuba to include Jamaica andthe Cayman Islands from 18N-22N between 75W-86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 15N16W to 15N26W, then resumes west of T.S. Florence near 14N34W and continues to 09N44W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 10N56W. See the Special Features section for convection related to Florence. In addition, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the coast of W Africa from 07N-14N between 15W-20W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 34W-42W, and from 06N-11N between 52W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level high is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N91W dominating the Gulf W of 85W. An upper level low is centered near Bimini at 26N79W. This feature is enhancing convection along the E coast of the Florida Peninsula, and over the Straits of Florida. A surface ridge extends west across the basin from a high centered over the central Atlantic. SE to S 10-15 kt return flow is over the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Louisiana from 27N-30N between 90W-93W. Expect for the surface ridge to dominate the Gulf waters today. Expect the special feature W Atlantic trough to be a factor thereafter. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered south of Hispaniola near 16N72W producing upper level diffluence N of the island over the S Bahamas. More upper level diffluence is noted over the Nw Caribbean S of Cuba. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean and another is entering the eastern Caribbean. See above. To the south, the eastern part of the EPAC's monsoon trough is along 10N from Costa Rica to Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 10N. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south central Caribbean during the next several nights. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for information about T.S Florence, and the Atlantic tropical wave. An upper-level low is centered over Bimini near 26N79W. This feature is enhancing convection west of 76W. Another upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N- 29N between 48W-57W. A surface trough extends over the W Atlantic from 27N76W to 22N77W, moving WNW. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-26W between 72W-77W. Clusters of widely Scatterede moderate convection is elsewhere W of 76W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa