469 AXNT20 KNHC 020640 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 240 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Florence... Tropical Storm Florence centered near 16.0N 30.2W at 02/0300 UTC or 340 nm WNW of The Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-18N between 28W- 32W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...West Atlantic... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast office for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 08N- 21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. This position was based on satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers are noted within 180 nm of the wave's axis between 18N-20N. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from E Cuba near 20N78W to Panama near 09N79W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave location is based on satellite imagery, atmospheric soundings, and model guidance. This wave is in an area where an upper-level low prevails near 17N72W enhancing convection. Scattered moderate convection is south of central Cuba from 16N- 21N between 78W-85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 18N16W to 16N24W, then resumes west of T.S. Florence near 12N31W and continues to 11N43W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 10N55W. See the Special Features section for convection related to Florence. In addition, scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm south of the monsoon trough between 30W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is centered near 27N92W. This feature is enhancing scattered showers between 89W-94W. Another upper-level low is centered north of the Bahamas in the west Atlantic. This low, combined with the one discussed previously, is keeping the area over the Florida Peninsula and far east Gulf under a diffluent flow aloft. With this, scattered moderate convection prevails east of 85W. A surface ridge extends west across the basin from a high centered over the central Atlantic. Expect for the surface ridge to dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend. A surface trough will move across South Florida by Monday enhancing convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered south of Hispaniola near 17N72W enhancing convection over the island and adjacent waters. A tropical wave is also over the west-central Caribbean. See the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Gulf of Honduras from 15N-17N between 85W-90W. To the south, the eastern part of the EPAC's monsoon trough is along 10N from Costa Rica to Colombia. Scattered showers prevail along the trough. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south central Caribbean during the next several nights. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Another tropical wave will move into eastern Caribbean today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for information about T.S Florence, and the Atlantic tropical wave. An upper-level low is centered north of the Bahamas near 28N79W. This feature is enhancing convection west of 76W. In addition, a surface trough extends from 24N73W to 20N73W, moving WNW with convection. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N58W to 27N62W with scattered moderate convection within 90 nm on either side of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA