020 AXNT20 KNHC 311756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, at 31/1500 UTC, is near 13.7N 22.7W, or 87 nm SE of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The low center is moving WNW at 10 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Santiago, Fogo and Brava. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N-16N between 23W-27W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 02N-13N, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 40W-47W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from Hispaniola near 20N71W to N Colombia near 08N73W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola from 16N-20N between 68W- 74W. Scattered showers are over NW Venezuela from 08N- 11N between 70W-73W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 15N17W, through the 1006 mb low pressure center that has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone, to 11N30W, to 09N46W. The ITCZ continues from 09N46W to the coast of South America near 06N58W. See the Special Feature section and the Tropical Wave section for convection. in addition, scattered moderate convection is over Trinidad from 09N- 11N between 61W-64W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A small upper level low is centered over SE Louisiana/the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N89W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the E Gulf of Mexico from 23N-30N between 82W-90W. An upper high is centered over S Texas near 29N98W. Scattered showers are over the W Gulf of Mexico from 2423N-30N between 90W-97W. A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N71W. A surface ridge extend W from the high to E Texas along 30N. This ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into the weekend and support gentle to moderate SE winds. A surface trough will develop each evening in the Yucatan Peninsula. It will move W and offshore into the SW Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough each night. Furthermore, an upper level low will advect from the N Bahamas to S Florida this weekend. Expect nocturnal thunderstorms over Sat night and Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered S of Hispaniola near 17N72W enhancing convection. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from Costa Rica to Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-12N between 80W-84W. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south central Caribbean Sea during the next several nights. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave, currently over Hispaniola, will move through the western Caribbean Sea by late Sunday into early Monday with active weather. A second tropical wave will move into eastern Caribbean Sea Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near 25N75W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-29N between 71W-78W. A surface trough has broken away from the Caribbean tropical wave and extends NE of Hispaniola from 24N66W to 18N69W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of this trough. This trough is moving WNW towards S Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N71W. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N56W to 27N57W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A 1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 35N31W producing fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa