008 AXNT20 KNHC 301204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms moving off the coast of Senegal are associated with a strong tropical wave and broad area of low pressure. A more well-defined low pressure system is forecast to form between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands later today after the tropical wave moves offshore over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend while moving westward or west- northwestward at about 15 mph. This system is expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday and Saturday, and interests on the islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. There is a medium chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. For more information refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 36W from 15N southward, moving west at 05-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-09N between 36W-41W. An E Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 22N65W to 08N67W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-21N between 60W-70W affecting the NE Caribbean. A tropical wave extends its axis over the Bay of Campeche along 92W between 06N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails over southern Mexico S of 19N between 94W- 100W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 10N30W to 08N40W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 09N-15N between 15W-27W. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-09N between 44W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low is centered over NE Mexico near 25N100W. Another small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 30N86W. Patches of widely scattered moderate convection is over most of the Gulf. At the surface, a ridge extends along 30N producing 10-15 kt SE surface flow. A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche. See above. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered S of Hispaniola near 17N73W. Upper level cyclonic flow covers the entire Caribbean. An area of diffluent flow is over the NW Caribbean S of Cuba. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 10N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Numerous strong convection is from 07N-11N between 72W-83W. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean, before diminishing through Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low amplitude tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A 1022 mb high is centered W of Bermuda near 34N69W. A 1026 mb high is centered near the Azores at 38N24W. Moderate to fresh winds will be S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds will be N of 24N. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong just north of Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage, during the evening and overnight hours through the weekend. A tropical wave over the east Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters will produce active weather as it moves westward across the Lesser Antilles and Bahamas through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa