272 AXNT20 KNHC 300519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 119 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is forecast to move between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands today. Conditions appears to be favorable for subsequent additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the weekend, while the system moves westward near the Cabo Verde Islands and the adjacent Atlantic. This system is expected to bring rains and gusty winds to those islands in two or three days, and interests in that region should monitor the progress of this disturbance. There is a medium chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. For more information refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 33W from 15N southward, moving west at 05-10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 09N. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the area where the low is located and meets the monsoon trough. An Atlantic-to-east Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 22N63W to 09N65W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N- 20N between 56W-68Wn affecting the Leeward and Virgin Islands at this time. A tropical wave extends its axis across the Yucatan Peninsula along 90W between 05N-22N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America mainly west of 87W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 20N16W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is along the 33W tropical wave, to 08N41W. The ITCZ continues from 08N41W to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 25W-30W. Stronger convection is exiting the coast of Africa at this time, related to the tropical wave described in the Special Feature section above. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A diffluent flow aloft prevails across the basin, supporting scattered moderate convection affecting the whole area. At the surface, a ridge extends along 30N anchored over the west Atlantic. To the southwest, a tropical wave is enhancing convection across the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect for these conditions to continue through the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level trough is along 15N/16N from 70W westward to Central America. Upper-level cyclonic flow covers this area enhancing scattered showers across Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 10N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean, before diminishing through Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Surface high pressure remains centered W of Bermuda. This feature will continue in this area through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds will be S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds will be N of 24N. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong just north of Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage, during the evening and overnight hours through the weekend. A tropical wave moving into the east Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters will produce active weather as it moves westward across the Lesser Antilles and Bahamas through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA