481 AXNT20 KNHC 300004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A tropical wave will be emerging off the west Africa coast on Wednesday. There is a medium chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it moves west to west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde islands. For more information refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 15N southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 09N. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the area where the low is located and meets the monsoon trough. An Atlantic-to-east Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from is along 21N58W to 08N62W, ending in Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-20N between 58W-66W. A west Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 88W from 05N- 22N. Scattered moderate convection prevails over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America between 86W-91W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is along the 33W tropical wave, 08N38W. The ITCZ continues from 08N38W to 08N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 20W-30W. Stronger convection is exiting the coast of Africa at this time, related to the tropical wave described in the Special Feature section above. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A diffluent flow aloft prevails across the basin, supporting scattered moderate convection affecting the whole area. At the surface, a ridge extends along 30N anchored over the west Atlantic. To the southwest, a tropical wave is enhancing convection across the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect for these conditions to continue through the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level east-to-west oriented trough is along 15N/16N from 70W westward to Central America. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, spans the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 70W. The trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across Puerto Rico to Venezuela. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of that part of the Caribbean Sea that is between 60W and 70W. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 09N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. An upper level trough extends from southern Nicaragua to Panama. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 11N southward from 80W and 83W. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea today, before diminishing from tonight through Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of cyclonic wind flow. An upper level trough extends from a 32N40W cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N46W, to a third 24N63W cyclonic circulation center, toward the Windward Passage. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N38W to 25N47W to 23N60W to the Mona Passage. Surface high pressure will remain centered SW of Bermuda through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds will be S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds will be N of 24N. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong just N of Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage, during the evening and overnight hours through Sunday. A tropical wave moving into the NE Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean today, will produce active weather as it moves westward across the Lesser Antilles and Bahamas through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT/ERA/LATTO