761 AXNT20 KNHC 291750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 15N southward. A 1013 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 09N. scattered moderate to widely scattered strong rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between Africa and 29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 17N between Africa and 31W. An Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 21N58W 16N60W 13N62W 08N62W, ending in Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 13N to 20N between 58W and Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 54W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 22N in the Yucatan Channel, beyond Central America, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 18N northward from the Windward Passage westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 16N17W, to 11N25W, to the 1013 mb low pressure center that is along the 31W/32W tropical wave, 08N38W. The ITCZ continues from 08N38W to 08N49W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N between 28W and 40W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward, mainly between 40W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from central Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf coast, to inland south central Texas. Scattered moderate to isolated/widely scattered strong rainshowers are to the north of the line from 25N90W to 28N96W from 90W westward. The upper level inverted trough/cyclonic circulation center from 24 hours ago has moved into Mexico, and now it is along 100W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the west of the line that runs from 26N95W to 19N92W. Weak upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the eastern one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 25N northward from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N northward in the Gulf of Mexico. A weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into the weekend and support gentle to moderate winds. A surface trough will develop each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula before moving W and offshore into the SW Gulf overnight. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level east-to-west oriented trough is along 15N/16N from 70W westward to Central America. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, spans the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 70W. The trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across Puerto Rico to Venezuela. isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of that part of the Caribbean Sea that is between 60W and 70W. A tropical wave is in the easternmost part of the Caribbean Sea, with its associated precipitation. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 09N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. An upper level trough extends from southern Nicaragua to Panama. scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 11N southward from 80W and 83W. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea today, before diminishing from tonight through Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of cyclonic wind flow. An upper level trough extends from a 32N40W cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N46W, to a third 24N63W cyclonic circulation center, toward the Windward Passage. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N38W to 25N47W to 23N60W to the Mona Passage. Surface high pressure will remain centered SW of Bermuda through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds will be S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds will be N of 24N. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong just N of Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage, during the evening and overnight hours through Sunday. A tropical wave moving into the NE Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean today, will produce active weather as it moves westward across the Lesser Antilles and Bahamas through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT