687 AXNT20 KNHC 291205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis along 32W between 03N-14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 08N32W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 29W-36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends it axis from 20N57W to 07N61W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the northern portion of the wave from 13N-20N between 54W-64W, over the Leeward Islands. A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean with axis along 86W between 03N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean and Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W to 09N26W to a 1012 mb low near 08N32W to 08N39W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N45W to 08N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is alongthe coast of W Africa from 08N-14N. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is in the NE corner of Mexico near 26N100W. Cyclonic flow covers Texas and N Mexico and the W Gulf of Mexico N of 20N and W of 94W. Isolated moderate convection is over the area. Another small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf near 30N88W. Scattered showers are over the E Gulf, Florida, and W Cuba. At the surface, a ridge prevails across the basin along 30N with 10 kt SE return flow. A surface trough will develop each night over the Yucatan Peninsula, then push offshore into the Bay of Campeche with convection. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough. A surface ridge will continue to dominate the reminder of the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean, and another tropical wave has entered the E Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered over Jamaica near 18N77W. This feature is producing isolated moderate convection over Jamaica and E Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 10N to include N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Fresh to strong winds will develop each night in the south central Caribbean Sea just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave with an embedded low is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N60W. Scattered showers are within 300 nm of the center. On the surface, a trough is over the W Atlantic from 30N80W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm of the trough. A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 29N67W. To the east, another 1025 mb high is centered near 37N22W. Surface ridging will prevail through the forecast period. Expect moderate to fresh winds S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh to strong just N of Hispaniola at night through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa