790 AXNT20 KNHC 140550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A low pressure system centered near 37N50W is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for this low to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 08N to 20N. Isolated moderate rain showers are in the monsoon trough area, from 07N to 10N between 26W and 34W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 08N to 21N, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate rain showers are in the monsoon trough area, from 07N to 09N between 43W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 10N to 23N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Minimal precipitation is evident near the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 10N to 22N. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to strong rain showers that are associated with the monsoon trough south of 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W to 09N20W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 10N40W to 08N49W to the coast of South America near 08N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong rain showers are from 05N to 10N between 33W and 52W, and from 09N to 11N between 58W and 63W, near Venezuela and Trinidad. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation over southern Mexico, and upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and 90W westward. A 1017 mb high is centered near New Orleans. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain showers are from 26N to 29N between Florida and 91W. A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface ridge will support light to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of the basin through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow across the Caribbean Sea from north of 14N and west of the Windward Passage including the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers cover the area north of 15N between 75W and 90W. The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong rain showers are within 45 nm on either side of the line that runs from 09N80W at the coast of Panama, to 12N85W in south central Nicaragua. Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through today. Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the week as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow from an upper level trough covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and Hispaniola northward and west of 70W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Upper level cyclonic wind flow associated with a trough covers the Atlantic from 22N northward between 35W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers cover the Atlantic Ocean north of 28N between 45W and 56W. A low pressure center and a trailing surface trough are north of the area along 50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center near 33N34W to 28N50W to a 1022 mb high pressure center near 30N66W. The surface ridge will remain in place during the next several days. This ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally strong winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and approaches to the Windward Passage at night. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow will continue N of 23N, while mainly moderate easterly wind flow will prevail S of 23N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell