276 AXNT20 KNHC 101731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 131 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W S of 20N. The position is in line with the long-loop satellite imagery and the model diagnostics. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 04N to 17N between 20W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W S of 12N, moving W 15 knots. This is a low amplitude and low latitude wave. Any nearby precipitation is probably more related to the monsoon trough/ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W S of 19N, moving W 15 to 20 knots. A well-defined inverted V surface pattern is apparent in satellite imagery. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 14N to 18N between 57W and 63W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from 16N southward between 60W and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 18N16W to 12N30W to 07N41W. The ITCZ is along 07N45W 05N52W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 06N to 11N between 50W and 54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between 33W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, except for the SW corner of the area. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 26N85W in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W. Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N southward between 90W and land. A weakening upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N85W. The cyclonic center was comparatively much more well- defined 24 hours ago. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the north of the line from 27N81W in Florida, to 28N88W in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, to 28N96W off the coast of Texas. A surface ridge will prevail across the area through early next week. The ridge will support moderate to fresh SE winds in the western and central Gulf of Mexico. A nocturnal trough moving off the Yucatan peninsula will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche each night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 23N68W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center, across Hispaniola, to 15N71W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward between 63W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea, in parts of Hispaniola, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward between 60W and 76W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible from 13N southward from 76W westward. High pressure, that is to the north of the area, will support fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through early next week. One tropical wave, moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea today, will reach the central Caribbean Sea late on Saturday, and then pass to the west of the region on Tuesday. A second tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday. The winds will approach gale force on Sunday night and Monday morning along the coast of Colombia as the pressure gradient tightens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface cyclonic wind flow is from 30N northward between Bermuda and the U.S.A. A frontal boundary is to the north of the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between Bermuda and the U.S.A. An upper level trough extends from a 33N50W cyclonic circulation center to 28N55W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 44W and 63W. A surface ridge passes through 32N39W to 30N46W 27N63W, beyond Lake Okeechobee in south Florida. The current 32N39W-30N46W-27N63W-to-Lake Okeechobee surface ridge will shift southward today, ahead of a surface trough that is forecast to move off the southeast coast of the U.S.A. on Saturday. The ridge then will move N to 28N through early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT