962 AXNT20 KNHC 081725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Tropical Storm Debby... Debby is located near 41.2N/48.3W as of 08/1500 UTC. Estimated minimum pressure is 1003 mb, moving northeast at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Debby is expected to continue moving northeast through tomorrow while weakening. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Gale force winds will develop once again by 09/00Z over the area north of Colombia from 11N-13N between 70W-76W. These conditions will continue through Thursday morning. Please see the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis in the eastern Atlantic extends from 20N31W to 06N35W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The northern part of the wave is affected by Saharan dry air intrusion. Scattered showers are noted in the area where the wave meets the monsoon trough along 10N. A tropical wave axis in the central Atlantic extends from 19N47W to 07N49W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined inverted V surface pattern noted on satellite imagery. The wave also has a large 700 mb trough associated with the wave. The wave is affected by Saharan dry air intrusion. No significant convection is observed with this wave at this time. A low amplitude tropical wave has entered Venezuela, extending its axis from 11N63W to 04N64W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to be affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust. No significant convection is observed with this wave at this time. A tropical wave axis in the W Caribbean extends from 19N85W to 05N85W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment as indicated by SSMI TPW imagery. It is also under an upper-level diffluent environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N-21N between 83W-89W, and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough mainly south of 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 22N17W and extends southwestward to 10N33W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 08N37W and continues to 09N46W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are observed within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough east of 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An area of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic into the basin. A surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 24N97W to 20N96W with scattered showers prevailing mainly west of 94W. An upper-level low centered over the Straits of Florida near 24N82W, enhancing convection across the Yucatan Channel. A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula from the early evenings to overnight hours for the next several days. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong winds will be associated with this trough. High pressure ridging will prevail across the area through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Gale force winds will develop again tonight. Please read the Special Features section above for details. The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean supports scattered moderate convection south of 10N and west of 80W. This pattern will continue through the week. The next tropical wave is forecast to reach the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by early Friday, and move across these islands this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical storm Debby is over the north-central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section above for details. A 1021 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 26N72W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 43N27W. Little change is expected through the next 24-48 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA