859 AXNT20 KNHC 041802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 17N southward. Please refer to the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section for the details about the precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 17N southward. Please refer to the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section for the details about the precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 19N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 10N to 17N between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 20N southward. The wave is moving through an area of pre-existing upper level cyclonic wind flow. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 17N southward between 55W and 72W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 20N southward. The wave is moving through an area of pre-existing upper level cyclonic wind flow. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal and Mauritania near near 16N16W, to 10N28W and 09N33W. The ITCZ continues from 09N33W to 09N38W 11N49W, and 12N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from 13N20W to 09N27W to 09N32W to 07N35W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward between 35W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through the Texas coastal plains, into Mexico near 20N103W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas from the Texas coastal plains and coastal waters, into central Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. A surface trough is along 28N85W 25N85W 22N86W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. The current 28N85W 22N86W surface trough will move westward across the southern and central waters through Sunday night, accompanied by scattered rainshowers with thunder. Surface troughs moving offshore the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong wind speeds in the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from the evenings to late at night during the next few days. Surface high pressure will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, remaining for the upper level trough of the last few days. Middle level cyclonic wind flow is in the coastal areas and inland areas of Honduras and Nicaragua. scattered strong rainshowers cover the areas that are from 14N to 18N between 82W and 86W, in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Honduras and Nicaragua. An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N63W cyclonic circulation center, into the eastern Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Venezuela along 67W/68W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 17N southward between 55W and 72W. A tropical wave is along 55W/56W, moving into the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica. The monsoon trough is along 09N74W to 09N79W, beyond 10N86W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the Honduras-Nicaragua precipitation, from 12N southward from 75W westward. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday night. The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near 12N74W during the overnight hours, and the sea heights may reach 10 to 12 feet. It is possible that the wind speeds may approach minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia late on Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean from the Bahamas northward between 71W and 76W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N44W. Large- scale cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 20W and 60W. A stationary front is along 33N37W 31N40W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 32N45W. The stationary front continues to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 32N51W. A cold front continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to 28N56W, 28N60W, to 32N70W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 39W and 52W. isolated moderate rainshowers accompany the cold front from 26N northward between 50W and 70W. The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of Hispaniola each night through Wednesday night. The trade trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually through early next week. An Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken, with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will weaken into a trough by Sunday evening. It is possible that weak low pressure may develop along the trough through early next week. A surface ridge will re-develop by the middle of the next week as the trough dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT