135 AXNT20 KNHC 030524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 124 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis across the central Atlantic from 17N40W to 05N40W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. This wave is depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows moderate moisture in the wave's environment. Despite this, shower activity is limited to the area near the monsoon trough along 10N, as the wave prevails in an area of Saharan dry air/dust. A tropical wave extends its axis across the central Atlantic along 55W between 07N-19W. This wave is moving west at 10-15 kt. Abundant Saharan dry air/dust prevails in the wave's environment inhibiting convection at this time. A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean, with axis along 69W between 08N-18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. No convection is related to this wave at this time. A tropical wave extends its axis along 91W between 10N-20N, extending from the Yucatan Peninsula to the EPAC waters, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted inland over southern Mexico and Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 13N17W to 09N42W. The ITCZ continues from 09N42W to 11N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 40W, scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough mainly east of 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, in the Texas coastal waters. The upper-level trough is associated with a frontal boundary that extends from SE Louisiana to south- central Texas. To the south, a surface trough extends from 30N87W to 22N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm south of this trough affecting most of the basin, including the Florida Peninsula. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. The current surface trough will move slowly W, and inland across Texas and Mexico by Fri night. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the trough. Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to around midnight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern portion of the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered south of central Cuba near 20N80W. Scattered showers are noted across the island and adjacent waters north of 18N between 77W- 87W. To the south, the monsoon trough extends along 10N enhancing convection from 11N to 13N between 76W and 82W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of cyclonic wind flow. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras through Monday night. Scattered showers will move across the central Caribbean Sea on Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level trough extends from a 33N74W cyclonic circulation center, to a 20N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to 11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are in the west Atlantic mainly west of 75W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin from a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 35N68W. Expect for winds to pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of Hispaniola each night through Monday night. Trade winds elsewhere across the region will diminish gradually through Saturday, as a ridge across the Atlantic weakens and lifts northward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA