502 AXNT20 KNHC 022357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 757 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are possible from 10N to 19N between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 14N between 64W and 69W. A tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America along 89W, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment mainly where the wave meets the monsoon trough along 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 19N16W, to 13N25W just to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The ITCZ continues from 13N25W to 09N36W, then resumes near 08N40W to 07N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 38W, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, in the Texas coastal waters. The upper level trough is associated with a frontal boundary that extends from SE Louisiana to east Texas and into south central Texas. A surface trough extends from south central Georgia, through SE Louisiana, toward the coast of Mexico near 24N. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 350 nm south of this trough affecting most of the basin. Another surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche along 94W with scattered showers. The current surface trough extending from near the Mouth of the Mississippi to the Bay of Campeche will move slowly W, and inland across Texas and Mexico by Fri night. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the trough. Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to around midnight. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through Cuba near 22N80W, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the island and adjacent waters north of 18N between 75W-85W. To the south, the monsoon trough extends along 10N enhancing convection from 11N to 13N between 80W and 86W, from the coastal waters into the southern half of Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of cyclonic wind flow. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras through Monday night. Scattered rainshowers from a tropical wave will move across the SE Caribbean Sea today, and across the central Caribbean Sea on Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to 11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 70W and 80W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin from a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 35N68W. Expect for winds to pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of Hispaniola each night through Monday night. Trade winds elsewhere across the region will diminish gradually through Saturday, as a ridge across the Atlantic Ocean weakens and lifts northward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT/ERA