204 AXNT20 KNHC 021205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers near the monsoon trough are from 06N to 10N between 30W and 37W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N between 45W and 56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 18N between 60W and 68W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The middle part of the tropical wave is moving through Honduras and El Salvador. The northern part is set to move into the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 19N16W, to 15N23W just to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, to 10N27W and 08N41W. The ITCZ continues from 08N41W to 06N48W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 30W and 37W, and from 07N to 10N between 41W and 44W. Isolated moderate rainshowers from 06N to 10N between 50W and 59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is at the Texas Gulf coast in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is associated with a frontal boundary extends from east Texas into south central Texas, parts of northern Mexico, and into west Texas. A surface trough extends from SE Alabama, through SE Louisiana, to 27N94W in the Gulf of Mexico, into the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the periphery of the SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast, to 23N90W, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico. A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N between 90W and 95W. The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday, and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to midnight. A surface trough will meander over the central Gulf through Fri. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely in the vicinity of the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 20N77W SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near western Panama. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line from 12N85W in Nicaragua, to 12N82W, to 10N78W off the coast of eastern Panama. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of cyclonic wind flow. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 83W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the scattered strong rainshowers that are with the upper level trough. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea through Monday night. Scattered showers from a tropical wave will move across the SE Caribbean Sea today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to 11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 80W. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 33N35W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 33N66W. Trade winds across the region will diminish through Saturday, as the current 32N/33N ridge, between 20W and 70W across the Atlantic Ocean, weakens and lifts northward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt