331 AXNT20 KNHC 020538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis across the eastern Atlantic from 17N33W to 06N33W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. This wave is depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows moderate moisture in the wave's environment. Despite this, convection is limited to the area near the monsoon trough as the wave prevails in an area of Saharan dry air/dust. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 26W and 36W. A tropical wave extends its axis across the central Atlantic along 48W between 06N-19W. This wave is moving west at 10-15 kt. Abundant Saharan dry air/dust prevails in the wave's environment inhibiting convection at this time. A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean, with axis along 64W between 07N-17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis between 61W-64W. This wave has a weak signature in model guidance and observations. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W between 10N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted inland over Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 20N16W to 09N29W to 08N44W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 33W, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough between 37W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough extends across the Texas Gulf coast in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is associated with a stationary frontal boundary that extends along the Texas coastline. South of this, a pre-frontal trough extends from 29N90W to 25N92W. To the northeast, another surface trough extends across the Florida Panhandle. Scattered showers prevail along both troughs. A thermal trough extends over the Yucatan Peninsula enhancing convection over the Bay of Campeche. The surface trough over the northwest Gulf will wander in the western Gulf of Mexico through Friday, and then it will dissipate. It is likely that showers and thunderstorms may be in the vicinity of the trough, increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to midnight. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves extend across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered over Cuba supporting scattered showers across the island and adjacent waters, as well as west Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. To the south, the monsoon trough is enhancing convection south of 10N between 75W-80W. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The wind speeds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night also. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are analyzed across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low centered over Cuba is enhancing showers across the Bahamas. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N61W and a 1024 mb high near 33N34W. The current strong ridge will weaken and lift northward through Saturday. The wind speeds will pulse to strong near the northern coast of Hispaniola at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA