816 AXNT20 KNHC 010529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 128 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 08N-18N along 25W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being severely affected by a Saharan Air Layer outbreak as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs and CIRA LPW imagery. With this, no significant convection is observed at this time. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 08N-17N along 39W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is also being severely affected by Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs, low-level water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery. No significant convection is associated to this wave at this time. A tropical wave in the central Atlc with axis extending from 07N- 17N along 55W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being supported by a mid-to-upper level inverted trough. Moderate moisture along 10N associated with the ITCZ supports scattered showers along the wave's axis on this latitude. A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean with axis extending S of 21N along 79W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan dust prevails in the wave's environment, as noted in GOES-16 RGBs imagery. The northern portion of the wave is in an area where an upper- level low is enhancing convection over the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba. A tropical wave is moving off the Yucatan Peninsula into the E Bay of Campeche. Its axis is S of 22N along 95W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed over southern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 15N21W, then resumes near 11N26W to 09N37W. The ITCZ begins near 09N41W and continues to 09N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The Atlc subtropical high extends across the basin supporting light to gentle southeasterly flow. CIRA LPW imagery show very moist air at low levels across the basin, which is being advected from the Caribbean by the return flow. This moist environment along with diffluence aloft supports scattered showers and tstms N of 23N E of 92W. A surface trough extends from 31N84W to 24N95W and is related to this convection. To the southwest, a thermal through currently extending over the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing convection across the eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche. Showers are forecast to continue in the aforementioned regions through early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant shallow moisture is in the NW and central Caribbean as noted in CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture along with middle-to-upper level diffluence is supporting scattered showers N of 18N and west of 80W. An upper-level low off the E coast of Jamaica support scattered showers over eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage related also to a tropical wave. See the section above for details. Elsewhere, GOES-16 water vapor and RGB imagery show dry air and dust across the E basin, which in part is hindering the development of convection. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles by Thu with showers for the Windward Islands. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves move across the basin, see the section above for details. Elsewhere, the Atlc subtropical high dominates the basin, supporting fair weather conditions. Surface ridging will dominate the basin through the next couple of days providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA