678 AXNT20 KNHC 310603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT tue Jul 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa is along 19W from 05N-17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A well defined surface trough is evident from scatterometer data, and a maximum in the total precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present with this wave. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days. A tropical wave moving west of the Cabo Verde Islands is along 31W from 09N-26N, moving west at 15-20 kt. A pronounced 700 mb trough in the GFS analysis is noted with this wave, along with a surface trough S of 10N from scatterometer data. No significant deep convection is present with this wave. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days. A tropical wave in the east-central Atlantic with axis extending from 02N-22N along 45W is moving west at 15-20 kt. It is weakly depicted in 700 mb tropical trough diagnostics and a negligible surface circulation. North of 13N, the wave is embedded with a large Saharan Air Layer. No significant deep convection is present with this wave. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis south of 23N near 69W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The wave was well- defined at 700 mb from the San Juan and Guadeloupe upper air soundings this morning, and slight wind shifts are seen in the scatterometer data. Isolated convection is inland over Venezuela near the wave axis. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days. A tropical wave over Central America extending south of 23N along 92W is moving westward at 15 kt, based on tropical trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate to strong convection exists over land from 17N-22N between 89W-91W, and from 16N-19N between 92W- 94W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W to 10N21W to 09N32W. The ITCZ continues from 09N32W to the coast of South America near 06N58W, disrupted near 07N44W where it intersects a tropical wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N-09N east of 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge and weak pressure gradient extends into the eastern Gulf from the W Atlantic. Winds are only 5-10 kt across the entire Gulf. An upper level trough is supporting widely scattered moderate convection in the southeastern Gulf. Winds will remain light during the next couple of days. Substantial moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica associated with the monsoon trough in the NE Pacific supports a moderate pressure gradient over the Caribbean. Trade winds are 10-20 kt with highest winds around 25 kt just NW of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N-21N between 78W-83W. In the SW Caribbean, the monsoon trough supports widespread showers south of 12N between 75W-83W. Little change expected during the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves moving across the basin are detailed above. The subtropical high dominates the basin. Isolated convection is observed in the W Atlantic N of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next couple of days providing stable and dry conditions, except for scattered convection associated with the wave currently near 19W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell