821 AXNT20 KNHC 310005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave moving west of the Cabo Verde Islands is along 28W from 09N-27N, moving west at 15 kt. A pronounced 700 mb trough in the GFS analysis is noted with this wave, along with a surface trough from scatterometer data. The total precipitable water imagery also shows a maximum east of the trough axis. No significant deep convection is present with this wave. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days. A tropical wave in the east-central Atlantic with axis extending from 02N-21N along 42W is moving west at 10-15 kt. It is weakly depicted in 700 mb tropical trough diagnostics and a negligible surface circulation. North of 13N, the wave is embedded with a large Saharan Air Layer. No significant deep convection is present with this wave. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis south of 23N near 66W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave was well-defined at 700 mb from the San Juan and Guadeloupe upper air soundings this morning, and slight wind shifts seen in surface observations at the 1326 UTC ASCAT scatterometer. Scattered moderate convection is inland over Venezuela between 65W-69W. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days. A tropical wave over Central America extending south of 22N along 90W, moving westward at 15-20 kt, based upon the Cancun and Merida rawindsonde winds at 700 mb, as well as the tropical trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection exists from 17N-22N between 89W-91W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to 10N30W. The ITCZ extends from 10N30W to the coast of South America near 10N62W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 05N east of 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends into the eastern Gulf from the W Atlantic. With a flat pressure gradient, winds are only 5-10 kt across the entire Gulf. An upper level low centered near 27N88W is supporting moderate convection in the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds will remain light during the next couple of days. Substantial moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica associated with the monsoon trough in the NE Pacific continues a moderate pressure gradient over the Caribbean. Easterly trade winds are 10-20 kt with a localized peak of 25 kt Just NW of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 19N-23N between 84W-90W. In the SW Caribbean, the monsoon trough supports moderate deep convection from 07N-12N between 77W-85W over the SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica. Little change is expected during the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin; see the section above for details. The subtropical high dominates the remainder of the basin. Scattered moderate convection is observed over the W Atlantic N of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next couple of days providing stable and dry conditions, except for scattered moderate convection associated with the wave currently near 26W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell