931 AXNT20 KNHC 291158 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 757 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 20 W from 06N-22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is noted with this wave. NO convection is observed with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis extending from 06N-20N along 34W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convection with this wave. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 06N-21N along 54W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering convection with this feature also. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis extending from 07N-19N along 70W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are over the Mona Passage. Isolated moderate convection is inland over Venezuela from 08N- 10N between 66W-69W. A tropical wave is over the Yucatan Peninsula with axis south of 21N along 90W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent EPAC waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 22N17W to 11N24W to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to 09N51W. Besides the showers mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered over the central Atlantic. With this, 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds prevail over most of the Gulf waters. A stationary front is over S Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered showers are noted N of 29N between 87W-94W to include S Louisiana. Scattered moderate convection is also over the Florida Peninsula. A surface trough extends across the southeast Gulf from 26N83W to 22N86W with scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of the trough. In addition, scattered showers have reached the SE Bay of Campeche due to an approaching tropical wave. Mostly fair weather prevails elsewhere. Expect convection to increase over the E Gulf through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture with a tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean together with a divergent environment aloft are supporting the convection over Cuba, the Yucatan Channel, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In the southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection over Costa Rica and Panama. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola and Jamaica mostly due to an upper-level low centered over Hispaniola near 19N71W. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for the south-central basin through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS continue to support scattered moderate convection north of 25N W of 75W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 37N47W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa/ERA