712 AXNT20 KNHC 290002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 802 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis extending from 08N-20N along 30W, moving westward at 15 kt. A 700 mb trough is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convection with this wave. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 07N-21N along 50W, moving westward at 15 kt. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering convection N of 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis S of 10N near the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 08N-20N along 66W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering convection N of 12N. Scattered moderate convection is over the Mona Passage. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over Venezuela from 08N- 11N between 64W-67W. A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis south of 21N along 86W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula,E Honduras, and E Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 22N17W to 11N24W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 08N48W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-08N between 42W-46W, and from 07N-10N between 55W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N92W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NW Gulf. A stationary front is over the Florida Panhandle, enhancing convection north of 29N and east of 88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also over the Florida Peninsula. A surface trough extends across the Florida Keys/Straits from 25N80W to 24N84W with scattered showers. Mostly fair weather prevails elsewhere. This weather pattern will continue over the weekend. Scattered showers are likely over the Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave that will move into this region Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture with a tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean together with a divergent environment aloft are supporting the heavy convection over Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In the southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough supports scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over Costa Rica and Panama. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola and Jamaica mostly due to an upper-level low centered over Hispaniola near 19N71W. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean along 66W. See above. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for the south- central basin through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS continue to support widely scattered moderate convection north of 25N W of 75W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 38N48W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa