789 AXNT20 KNHC 281729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis extending from 09N-21N along 21W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convection with this wave. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 07N-21N along 48W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering convection N of 10N. Scattered moderate convection is developing along and south of 10N mainly near the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 08N-20N along 63W, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering convection N of 12N. Scattered showers are W of the wave axis from 06N-11N between 60W-65W. A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean with axis south of 21N along 84W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the southern portion of the wave from 09N-12N between 80W-85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 22N17W to 11N22W to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N51W to 08N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin with 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds prevailing mainly across the eastern gulf. A stationary front is just N of the Florida Panhandle, enhancing convection north of 29N and east of 88W. Scattered showers remain over Florida. A surface trough extends across the Florida Keys/Straits from 22N85W to 26N81W with scattered showers. Mostly fair weather prevails elsewhere. This weather pattern will continue over the weekend. Scattered showers are likely over the Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave that will move into this region by Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture in the northwest Caribbean with a divergent environment aloft are supporting scattered showers over the NW Caribbean from 19N-22N between 81W-86W. In the southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough supports scattered showers south of 12N between 76W-85W. This activity is also related to a tropical wave, currently extending along 84W. Isolated showers are occurring over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba due to an upper- level low centered north of Hispaniola near 21N71W. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean along 64W. Another tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by late Sunday. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for the south-central basin through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS and a high over the northern Bahamas continue to support scattered showers north of 25N W of 75W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 38N48W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA