791 AXNT20 KNHC 241723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the Cape Verde Islands with axis extending from 06N-20N along 24W, moving W at 15 kt. A large area of Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of 14N. Isolated moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-16N between 12W-19W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 05N-17N along 37W, moving W at 15 kt. A large area of Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of 10N. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave intersects the monsoon trough from 08N-10N between 32W-38W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 06N-20N along 55W is moving W at 15 kt. This wave is on the leading edge of a large area of Saharan air, inhibiting large scale convection at this time. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 08N-20N along 70W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is accompanied by Saharan dry air and dust, inhibiting any significant convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N16W to 09N30W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to the coast of South America near 05N53W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the convergence zone axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 mb low is centered over N Florida near 30N83W. A stationary front extends SW from the low to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 27N87W then westward to SW Louisiana near 29N94W. Convection associated with the frontal boundary has increased in the past 3-6 hours with with isolated moderate convection over the Florida Panhandle, and scattered moderate to isolated strong convection S of Louisiana from 25N-29N between 88W-95W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a weak high centered near the Yucatan Channel at 20N85W, maintaining fair weather and light to gentle winds. 1-3 ft seas are south of the front, with little change expected through Friday. The stationary front over N Florida will gradually weaken to a trough by Thu. Elsewhere, a surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each evening, accompanied by fresh nocturnal winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean. See above. Scattered showers are just south of E Cuba from 19N- 21N between 75W-79W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over Panama S of 11N. Relatively dry and stable conditions persist elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south-central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere the next several days, with the exception of light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of the Bahamas and W of 72W related to diffluent flow aloft. Gusty winds are possible near the thunderstorms. Moderate S to SW winds are noted west of 70W with 4-6 ft seas in open waters. Scattered moderate convection is over the central Atlantic from 26N-30N between 54W-62W. This convection is also due to another diffluent flow aloft. A strong ridge prevails across the rest of the basin, anchored by a 1033 high centered near 38N53W. This subtropical high along with low pressure over the southeast U.S. will produce moderate to fresh southerly winds across the waters north of 25N and west of 70W including Florida coastal waters through Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are also expected south of 22N, including approaches to the Windward Passage. Ridging will dominate the area through the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa