980 AXNT20 KNHC 111156 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Chris is located near 35.3N 69.9W, or about 275 nm E of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina at 11/0900 UTC. Chris is moving NE, or 50 degrees, at 19 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen a little today or tonight. After that time, the hurricane is forecast to weaken and become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or earlier. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 34N-36N between 68W-70W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 20W from 03N-19N. Scattered moderate convection is near the base of the wave from 05N-09N between 19W-24W. A tropical wave has its axis along 39W from 06N-19N, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Saharan dust and dry air prevails in the wave's environment inhibiting convection at this time. A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 60W from 02N-13N, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers are occurring along the portion of the wave that prevails over South America south of 07N. Expect moderate to locally fresh winds along the wave as it continues moving westward into the eastern Caribbean. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, extends its axis along 80W from 10N-21N, moving W at 15-20 knots. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers the area between Cuba and the Bahamas from 700 mb to 500 mb. Scattered showers are near the wave's axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of SW Senegal near 13N17W to 09N32W. The ITCZ is along 08N38W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the monsoon trough mainly east of 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic flow covers the basin, with surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high pressure centered near 27N90W. Scattered showers and tstms are noted over the NE Gulf, and near the coast of Veracruz. High pressure will prevail across the northern Gulf waters through Sun. A surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Sun, and enhance nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature is the tropical wave, remnants of Beryl, along 77W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Scattered showers and tstms are seen across the SW Caribbean S of 11N. This convective activity is associated with the monsoon trough affecting parts of Costa Rica and Panama. Scatterometer data depict gentle to moderate trades across the basin except moderate to fresh winds south of 15N between 70W-74W. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west enhancing convection across Cuba and southern Bahamas. Little change is expected elsewhere. Winds will pulse to near or just below gale force each night off Colombia beginning Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Chris is centered north of the forecast area near 35.3N 69.9W. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl is located over much of the Bahamas and extends northwestward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week while the disturbance moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. A surface trough has developed over the Bahamas in association with the remnants of Beryl, and extends from 27N75W to 23N79W. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near 41N33W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell