445 AXNT20 KNHC 110544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 144 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Chris at 11/0300 UTC is located near 34.2N 71.4W, or about 212 nm ESE of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina. Chris is moving NE, or 50 degrees, 9 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots. Chris is forecast to strengthen a little more through Wednesday night. After that, Chris is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or early Friday. Scattered moderate convection is from 32N-37N between 68W-72W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 06N- 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Saharan dust and dry air prevails in the wave's environment inhibiting convection at this time. A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 59W from 02N- 13N, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers are occurring along the portion of the wave that prevails over South America south of 06N. Expect moderate to locally fresh winds along the wave as it continues moving westward through the tropical Atlantic Ocean. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, extends its axis along 77W from 10N-21N, moving W at 15-20 knots. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers the area between Cuba and the southern Bahamas from 700 mb to 500 mb. Scattered showers are north of 18N between 76W-80W. A tropical wave extends along 98W across southern Mexico reaching the EPAC waters near 10N98W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the wave's axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of SW Senegal near 13N17W to 09N32W. The ITCZ is along 08N38W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the monsoon trough mainly east of 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic flow covers the basin, with surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 28N91W. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula with convection. This feature will move west overnight across the Bay of Campeche with similar activity. Little change is expected through the end of the work-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature is the tropical wave, remnants of Beryl, along 77W. Refer to the section Tropical Waves section above for details. The monsoon trough is along 09N between 76W-82W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along this boundary. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin except moderate to fresh winds south of 15N between 70W- 74W. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west enhancing convection across Cuba and southern Bahamas. Little change is expected elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Chris is centered north of the area near 34.2N 71.4W. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. Associated winds and swell will affect the far N waters tonight before conditions improve. A tropical wave extends along 37W. Refer to the section above for details. A surface trough has developed over the Bahamas from 24N76W to 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is observed with this feature between 74W-79W. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near 42N33W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA