261 AXNT20 KNHC 101652 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1252 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Chris, at 10/1500 UTC, is near 33.1N 73.1W, or about 175 nm/320 km, SE of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina. Chris is moving NE, or 50 degrees, 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Chris is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today when it moves over warmer waters, and some additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday night. Chris is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or early Friday. Tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm of the center in the northern semicircle, and within 120 nm of the center in the southern semicircle. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 11N to 20N between 28W and 34W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 13N southward moving W 15 to 20 knots. Rainshowers are possible in the ITCZ, from 10N southward between 50W and 60W. Expect moderate to locally fresh winds along the wave as it continues moving westward through the tropical Atlantic Ocean. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, is along 72W/74W from 23N southward, moving W 20 knots. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers the NW Caribbean Sea between Hispaniola and Cuba from 700 mb to 500 mb. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 17N to 27N between 67W and 77W. A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 23N southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 22N southward between 93W and the coast of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of SW Senegal near 13N17W, to 09N25W and 09N29W. The ITCZ is along 08N35W 08N42W 08N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 15W and 18W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 25N northward. A 1021 mb high pressure center is inland in NW Mississippi. Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 26N northward from 88W eastward. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will meander across the northern Gulf waters through Friday. A surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Saturday, and enhance the nocturnal winds in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature is the 72W/74W tropical wave, that extends from the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, into northern Colombia. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers the NW Caribbean Sea between Hispaniola and Cuba from 700 mb to 500 mb. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 17N to 27N between 67W and 77W. The monsoon trough is along 10N72W along the Colombia/Venezuela border, to 09N80W, beyond southern Costa Rica. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N southward between 77W and 85W in SE Nicaragua. The remnant tropical wave of Beryl cuts across the area that is from the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to northern Colombia. Active precipitation covers the areas from 17N and Hispaniola to 27N between 67W and 77W in parts of SE Cuba. Associated weather is expected to shift NW across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and into the SE Bahamas through Wednesday. Strong tradewinds across the south central sections will decrease ahead of the tropical wave through Wednesday, and then increase to just below gale force each night off Colombia beginning on Thursday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Chris near 33.1N 73.1W 993 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NE 8 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Chris has started to move NE, and will continue to shift away from the area today. Associated winds and swell will affect the far N waters through this evening before conditions improve. Expect strong winds...high seas and active weather in the waters south of 22N today and tonight as the remnant tropical wave of Beryl moves NW across Hispaniola and into the southeast Bahamas. High pressure to dominate the region from Friday through the upcoming weekend. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 25N to 30N from 70W westward to land, in an area of broad surface cyclonic wind flow that is to the southwest of the cyclonic wind flow that is moving around Tropical Storm Chris directly. An upper level trough extends from a 26N54W cyclonic circulation center to 10N54W. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 30N between 46W and 60W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between Africa and 70W. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 34N54W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT