000 AXNT20 KNHC 101205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Chris, at 10/0900 UTC, is near 32.6N 73.9W, or about 175 nm/325 km, SSE of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Chris is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today and some additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday night. Chris is forecast to become a strong post- tropical cyclone by Thursday night or early Friday. Tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 30W/32W from 19N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 08N to 20N between 27W and 35W. A tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 13N southward moving W 15 to 20 knots. Rainshowers are possible in the ITCZ, from 10N southward between 50W and 60W. Expect fresh winds along the wave as it continues moving westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. A tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, is along 71W/73W from 23N southward, moving W 20 knots. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers the NW Caribbean Sea between Hispaniola and Cuba from 700 mb to 500 mb. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 17N to 26N between 66W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 19N16W, to 11N23W and 09N28W. The ITCZ is along 11N34W 12N36W 08N45W 07N54W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 08N to 09N between 15W and 17W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Widely scattered showers are over the Florida Bay. A weak surface trough is south of 22N between 95W-96W near Veracruz. Expect a surface trough to move offshore each evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Little change is expected elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in the central Caribbean. Winds associated with the wave will be 20-25 kt with occasional gusts to 35 kt, with 9-10 ft seas. Remnants of Beryl will move quickly west-northwest across Hispaniola overnight, emerging into the Atlantic near the Bahamas Tuesday. An unfavorable upper level environment will hinder redevelopment during the next day or so, but conditions may become a little more conducive for regeneration Wed or Thu north of the Bahamas. Strong to near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia during the next 48 hours. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to Special Features section for information on TS Chris. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of a broad ridge extending from the central Atlantic. Widespread moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of this ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT