000 AXNT20 KNHC 100545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Chris is stationary near 32.3N 74.3W at 0300 UTC or about 190 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft reconnaissance is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is mainly southeast of the center from 31N-33N between 73W-75W. Chris is expected to remain nearly stationary during the next 12 to 24 hours. Some strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Chris is forecast to become a hurricane Tue. A northeastward motion is forecast to begin late Tue, with Chris accelerating northeastward Wed and Thu. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 29W from 06N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has a good moisture signature at low to mid levels, as noted on satellite imagery. Scattered shallow showers are noted along the wave's axis between 10N-16N. A tropical wave is along 53W from 02N-13N moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-09N between 52W-54W. Expect fresh winds along the wave axis as it continues moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, is along 69W from 11N- 22N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is across the Greater Antilles from 17N-23N bewteen 65W-72W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa from 14N17W to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave from 11N31W to 11N36W to 06N52W. Scattered convection is along and north of the ITCZ axis between 38W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Widely scattered showers are over the Florida Bay. A weak surface trough is south of 22N between 95W-96W near Veracruz. Expect a surface trough to move offshore each evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Little change is expected elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in the central Caribbean. Winds associated with the wave will be 20-25 kt with occasional gusts to 35 kt, with 9-10 ft seas. Remnants of Beryl will move quickly west-northwest across Hispaniola overnight, emerging into the Atlantic near the Bahamas Tuesday. An unfavorable upper level environment will hinder redevelopment during the next day or so, but conditions may become a little more conducive for regeneration Wed or Thu north of the Bahamas. Strong to near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia during the next 48 hours. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to Special Features section for information on TS Chris. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of a broad ridge extending from the central Atlantic. Widespread moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of this ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell