000 AXNT20 KNHC 092351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Chris is stationary near 32.2N 74.4W at 2100 UTC or about 190 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-34N between 71W-76W. Chris is expected to remain nearly stationary during the next day or so. Some strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Chris is forecast to become a hurricane Tue. A northeastward motion is forecast to begin late Tue, with Chris accelerating northeastward Wed and Thu. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 29W from 04N-20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave has a good signature at low to mid levels, as noted on satellite imagery. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis between 08N-12N. A tropical wave is along 52W from 02N-13N moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 46W-55W. Expect fresh winds along the wave axis as it continues moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, is along 67W from 10N- 20N, moving W at 20 kt. A gale area associated with the wave over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico is no longer in effect. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 15N-20N bewteen 62W-68W. A tropical wave is along 86W from 09N-22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula from 15N-22N between 85W-89W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa from 14N16W to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave from 09N31W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N- 08N between 36W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the E Gulf from 24N-27N between 84W-90W. A surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche has convection near Veracruz. ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate E winds across the area. Expect a surface trough to move offshore each evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Little change is expected elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section for details on two tropical waves in the Caribbean. A gale associated with the remnants of Beryl is no longer in effect for the Leeward Islands. Winds there will be 20-30 kt with occasional gusts to 35 kt, with seas to 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-20N between 62W-68W. The remnants of Beryl will move quickly west-northwest, passing over Hispaniola tonight and emerging into the Atlantic near the Bahamas Tuesday. An unfavorable upper level environment should prevent redevelopment during the next day or so, but conditions may become a little more conducive for regeneration Wed or Thu north of the Bahamas. Strong to near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia during the next 48 hours. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to Special Features section for information on TS Chris. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered near 35N54W. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell