000 AXNT20 KNHC 091654 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1253 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale, the remnants of Beryl, at 1200 UTC is over the Leeward Islands from 17N-19.5N between 63W-66W. Winds are 25-30 kt with frequent gusts to 35 kt. Seas are to 11 ft. Gale conditions are forecast to end at 10/0000 UTC this evening. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 15N-20N betweeen 62W-68W. The remnants of Beryl is expected to move west-northwestward for the next day or so, passing over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and over Hispaniola tonight. Unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with land should prevent redevelopment during the next day or two, but environmental conditions could become somewhat conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone later this week when the system is forecast to turn northward over the Bahamas and the western Atlantic. Tropical Storm Chris is centered near 32.2N 74.5W at 09/1500 UTC or 187 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and is stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-34N between 71W-76W. The cyclone is expected to remain nearly stationary during the next day or so. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Chris is forecast to become a hurricane Tuesday. A northeastward motion is forecast to begin late Tuesday, and Chris is forecast to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 26W from 03N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave has a good signature at low to mid levels, as noted on satellite imagery. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis between 08N-12N. A tropical wave is along 50W from 02N-13N moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 46W-55W. Expect fresh winds along the wave's axis as it continues moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, is along 65W from 10N- 21N, moving W at 20 kt. A gale area is also associated with the wave over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. See above. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 15N-20N betweeen 62W-68W. A tropical wave is along 86W from 09N-22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula from 15N-22N between 85W-89W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa from 14N17W to 10N25W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave from 10N28W to 06N40W to 05N49W. The ITCZ resumes W of another tropical wave near 06N52W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 36W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the E Gulf from 24N-27N between 84W-90W. A surface trough is moving across the Bay of Campeche with convection near Veracruz. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the area. Expect for a trough to move offshore every evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Little change is expected elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section on a gale over the Leeward Islands. Also see the Tropical Waves section for details on two tropical waves in the Caribbean. Strong to near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia through the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on Chris. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered near 35N54W. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa