000 AXNT20 KNHC 091207 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 807 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale, the remnants of Beryl, near 16N 63.5W at 0600 UTC, moving WNW at 22 kt. Winds are 25-30 kt with frequent gusts to 35 kt within 90 nm NE semicircle of remnants, with seas 8-15 FT within 90 nm NE semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 15N-19N betweeen 60W-65W. The remnants of Beryl will continue to move south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Gale conditions are forecast to end at 1800 UTC today. Tropical Storm Chris is centered near 32.4N 74.6W at 09/0900 UTC or 174 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving S at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-34N between 71W-76W. The cyclone is expected to remain nearly stationary during the next day or so. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Chris is forecast to become a hurricane late today or tonight. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 25W from 03N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave has a good signature at low to mid levels, as confirmed by recent observations and satellite imagery. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis between 08N-12N. A tropical wave is along 49W from 02N-13N moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 46W-55W. Expect fresh winds along the wave's axis as it continues moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, is along 63W/64W from 10N-21N, moving WNW at 22 kt. A gale area is also associated with the wave E of the wave axis over the Leeward Islands. See above. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 15N-19N betweeen 60W-65W. A tropical wave is along 85W from 08N-22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-18N between 83W-88W affecting portions of Honduras and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa from 19N16W to 14N20W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave from 09N25W to 06N40W to 05N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 36W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the SE Gulf. A surface trough is moving across the Bay of Campeche with convection mainly south of 21N. This activity will dissipate during the morning hours. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the area. Expect for a trough to move offshore every evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Little change is expected elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section on a gale over the Leeward Islands. Also see the Tropical Waves section for details on two tropical waves in the Caribbean. Strong to near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia through the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on Chris. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1027 mb surface high centered near 35N54W. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa