000 AXNT20 KNHC 090521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnants of Beryl are centered near 15.8N 62.4W at 09/0300 UTC or 70 nm WNW of Dominica, moving WNW at 23 kt. A tropical wave has been analyzed with this system, extending from 21N61W to 10N61W. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. With this, a gale warning is in effect for the waters within 30 nm over the N semicircle through the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-18N between 59W- 64W. The remnants of Beryl will continue moving across the eastern Caribbean during the next few hours, and then move south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Chris is centered near 32.5N 74.5W at 09/0300 UTC or 140 nm S of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and is moving ESE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-34N between 70W-76W. Chris is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and additional strengthening is expected into Tuesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 22W from 03N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave has a good signature at low to mid levels, as confirmed by recent observations and satellite imagery. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis between 08N-12N. A tropical wave is along 47W from 01N-17N moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are developing along the wave's axis mainly south of 06N. Expect fresh winds along the wave's axis as it continues moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is along 83W from 08N-22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-19N between 81W-87W affecting portions of Honduras and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa from 19N16W to 08N29W where scatterometer data indicates a transition to an ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues southwest to 05N45W. Aside from the convection associated with a tropical wave, scattered showers are noted within 75 nm of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. A surface trough is moving across the Bay of Campeche with convection mainly south of 20N. This activity will dissipate during the morning hours. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the area. Expect for the trough to move offshore every evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Little change is expected elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in the central Caribbean. Also, refer to the Special Features section above for details about the remnants of Beryl. Strong to near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia through the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on the remnants of Beryl and Chris. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered near 35N55W. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA