000 AXNT20 KNHC 080506 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 106 AM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 13.1N 54.3W at 08/0300 UTC or 430 nm ESE of the Lesser Antilles moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N-14N between 51W-54W. Beryl is forecast to gradually weaken during the next 48 hours, it is likely to become a tropical depression after moving across the Lesser Antilles. The system is then expected to degenerate into a tropical wave as it moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea on Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Three is centered near 32.9N 75.1W at 08/0300 UTC or 140 nm S of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and it is stationary at this time. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 30N-33N between 74W-81W. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight or Sunday with additional strengthening expected after that. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 04N-18N along 12W. This wave was located based on good signature at low to mid levels, as well as recent observations. Scattered showers are noted ahead of the wave's axis from 07N-15N between 13W-20W. A tropical wave is analyzed with axis from 03N-17N along 34W and is estimated to be progressing west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. Expect a fresh winds along the wave's axis as it continues westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is analyzed with axis from 10N-21N along 73W, and is estimated to be progressing west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are observed from 16N-21N between 71W-74W affecting portions of Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A tropical wave is moving west across the SW Gulf of Mexico with axis along 98N and south of 22N. The wave is accompanied by scattered moderate convection affecting the SW Mexico area and adjacent Pacific waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa at 21N17W to 15N22W, where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues southwest to near 12N32W. The ITCZ re- forms SW of Beryl near 07N37W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection associated with Beryl and the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 40W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The northern extension of a tropical wave is analyzed over southwest Mexico. This feature is enhancing scattered showers across the land areas south of 20N and along 98W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, with axis along 27N. An upper-level low centered near 25N84W is enhancing scattered showers between 85W-92W. This activity is also enhanced by a pre- frontal trough that extends along 30N over the Florida Panhandle. The tropical wave will continue moving west away from the area. A surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening enhancing nocturnal winds across the southwest gulf waters through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in the central Caribbean. Also, refer to the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Cyclone Beryl. Strong to near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia through the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on T.S. Beryl and T.D. Three, and the Tropical Waves section for information on these features. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered near 33N56W. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA