000 AXNT20 KNHC 080000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 12.7N 52.7W at 07/2100 UTC or 478 nm ESE of The Lesser Antilles moving W-NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 180 nm E of the center. Beryl is forecast to gradually weaken reaching near Hispaniola on Tue and dissipate on Wed. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Three is centered near 32.9N 75.3W at 07/2100 UTC or 140 nm S of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and it is stationary at this time. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 270 nm SE and elsewhere within 150 nm of center. T.D. Three is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on Sun morning and further strengthen to a hurricane on Wed as it accelerates northeast away from the area. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis extending from 04N-20N along 10W. This wave was located based on good signature at low to mid levels, as well as recent observations. Scattered showers are noted south of 12N between 07W-12W. A tropical wave is analyzed from 03N to 17N along 33W and is estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N within 120 nm of the wave axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it continues westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N to 20N along 70W, and is estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave is moving west across the SW Gulf of Mexico to the S of 23N along 96W and is accompanied by scattered moderate convection affecting the SW gulf waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa at 21.7N17W to 09N25W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues SW to a tropical wave near 08N31W to 07N40W to 10N46W where it loses identity in the cyclonic circulation associated with Tropical Cyclone Beryl. The ITCZ re-forms SW of Beryl near 10N52W and extends SW to 07N53W. Aside from the convection associated with Beryl and the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of line from 12N16W to 04N39W and within 30 nm of line from 08N51W to 09N61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The northern extension of a tropical wave is analyzed S of 23N along 96W. Surface highs are analyzed at 26N87W and inland Mexico at 27N100W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across the far Sw gulf waters. across the northern and NE coastal gulf waters. The tropical wave will pass W of the area tonight. Thereafter, a surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening enhancing nocturnal winds across the southwest gulf waters through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in the E Caribbean. Also, refer to the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Cyclone Beryl. Strong to near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia through 48 hours. Otherwise, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed to the N of 17N between 68W and 72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features Section for information on Tropical Cyclone Beryl, Tropical Depression Three and the Tropical waves Section for information on a tropical wave in the E Atlantic. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a surface high along about 32N. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/MN