000 AXNT20 KNHC 070532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 132 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Beryl near 10.9N 48.9W 994 mb at 11 PM EDT, or about 775 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N-13N between 45W-51W. A turn toward the west-northwest and a faster forward speed are expected on Saturday, with this motion continuing through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain by late Sunday or Monday. T.D. Three is currently centered near 32.6N 74.1W as of 11 PM EDT. The depression is moving NNW at 5 kt, with central pressure of 1015 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed from 28N-33N between 72W-77W. The depression is forecast to move slowly northward overnight and on Saturday. A decrease in forward speed is expected by Saturday night, and the depression is forecast to meander well off the southeast U.S. coastline on Sunday and Monday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Saturday. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the east Atlantic has an axis from 04N to 17N along 29W and is estimated to be progressing west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 07N. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it continues westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave over the east Caribbean is analyzed with axis from 08N to 19N along 64W, and is moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are observed along the wave's axis mainly south of 14N. A tropical wave is moving west across the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche, then reaching the EPAC near 12N93W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N-19N between 90W-95W. The northern extent of this wave will pass west across the southwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western Africa at 20N17W to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 05N31W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated with Hurricane Beryl and the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 15W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough analyzed over the Bay of Campeche with convection south of 21N and west of 93W. The northern extension of a tropical wave is along 91W. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered over northern Florida and is keeping the environment unstable enough to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west across the Bay of Campeche through the weekend. A surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening enhancing nocturnal winds across the southwest gulf waters through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave currently over the east Caribbean. Also, refer to the Special Features section above for details about Hurricane Beryl. Near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia through the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features Section for information on Hurricane Beryl and T.D. Three over the northwest Atlantic. Two tropical waves are between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles, see the Tropical Waves section for more information. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong winds across the Canary Islands. For additional details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.hmtl. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a series of surface highs along about 32N-33N. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA