000 AXNT20 KNHC 061759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Beryl near 10.7N 46.5W 994 mb at 11 AM EDT, or about 1045 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 30 nm east and 150 nm west of the center. Beryl will move to 11.3N 47.9W this evening, 12.2N 50.1W Sat morning, 13.3N 53.0W Sat evening, 14.2N 56.6W Sun morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 16.2N 64.6W Mon morning. Beryl will move inland over Hispaniola near 18.5N 72.0W early Tue, and dissipate on Wed. A well-defined surface low is located a few hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms observed mainly within 210 nm over the south semicircle are beginning to organize into persistent bands. Environmental conditions are very favorable for tropical development as the low moves slowly northwestward and then forecast to meander off the coast of North Carolina. This system will likely become a tropical depression. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N to 16N along 26W and is estimated to be progressing west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 10N within 210 nm east of the wave axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it continues westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is analyzed from 05N to 17N along 57W, and is estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 75 nm either side of a line from 07N53W to 12N61W. A tropical wave is moving west across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and Guatemala accompanied by scattered thunderstorms mainly to the north of 15N. The northern extent of this wave will pass west across the southwest Gulf of Mexico early net week. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western Africa at 17N16W through the tropical wave at 09N26W, then turns northwest to 11N39W where it loses identity in the cyclonic circulation associated with Hurricane Beryl. An ITCZ forms southwest of Beryl near 07N48W and extends west to 06N56W. Aside from the convection associated with Hurricane Beryl and the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of line from 08N13W to 07N23W to 09N41W to 03N50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A low level trough analyzed south of 24N along 93W will shift southwest tonight and then meander across the far southwest gulf waters through at least Sat. A surface trough analyzed north of 24N along 85W will move west across the northern gulf waters overnight reaching the Texas coast on Sat. A surface high is analyzed at 23N98W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed west of 94W and across the northeast waters near the trough. A tropical wave currently passing west across the Yucatan Peninsula will pass through the Bay of Campeche on Sat. Thereafter, a surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening enhancing nocturnal winds across the southwest gulf waters through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave that will pass through the Windwards tonight and pass through the east Caribbean on Sat. Near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia through 48 hours. Otherwise, isolated moderate convection is streaming west across the the eastern Caribbean in moderate trades. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features Section for information on Hurricane Beryl and a surface low over the northwest discussion waters that has a high potential for development. Two tropical waves are between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles, see the Tropical Waves section for more information. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong winds across the Canary Islands. For additional details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.hmtl. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a series of surface highs along about 33N. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Nelson