000 AXNT20 KNHC 061201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 AM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Beryl is centered near 10.6N 45.1W at 06/0900 UTC, or about 1140 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, moving west at 12 knots. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is flaring within 120 nm of the center. Beryl is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on Sat, and then continue to weaken into early next week. Increased winds and rainfall are likely to accompany Beryl as it passes through the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details. A well-defined surface low is located about midway between the southeastern United States and Bermuda and accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly northwestward and later northward off the coast of North Carolina. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for additional information. A Gale Warning is in effect across the south-central Caribbean along the northwest coast of Colombia. A recent scatterometer pass indicated minimal gale force conditions from 10.5N to 14N between 73W and 78W with seas forecast of 9 to 14 ft. The winds are forecast to diminish to near gale force late this morning and persist through about 48 hours. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N to 16N along 24.5W and is estimated to be progressing west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed south of 10N within 150 nm of the wave axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it continues westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is analyzed from 05N to 17N along 56W, and is estimated to be progressing west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 10N within 180 nm east of the wave and from 07N to 12N within 240 nm west of the wave axis. A tropical wave is moving west across the northwest Caribbean including the Yucatan Channel accompanied by scattered thunderstorms mainly to the north of 17N. This convection will move across northern Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula throughout the day. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western Africa at 14N16W through the tropical wave at 09N24.W, then turns west to 10N39W where it loses identity in the cyclonic circulation associated with Hurricane Beryl. An ITCZ forms southwest of Beryl near 07N47W and extends west to 06N56W. Aside from the convection associated with T.S. Beryl and the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of line from 09N13W to 09N37W to 03N50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Low level troughs are analyzed south of 24N along 92W and north of 25N along 86W. A surface high is analyzed at 27N92W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms observed around the periphery of the high, generally within 180 nm of the coast. The trough over the northeast waters will move west across the northern waters today through Sat. A tropical wave currently passing west through the Yucatan Channel will pass through the Bay of Campeche on Sat. Thereafter, a surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening enhancing nocturnal winds across the southwest gulf waters through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for details on a gale warning off the northwest coast of Colombia. See the Tropical Waves for details on two tropical waves that will affect the Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Otherwise, isolated moderate convection is streaming west across the the eastern Caribbean in moderate trades. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features Section for information on Hurricane Beryl and a surface low over the northwest waters that has a high potential for development. Two tropical waves are between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles, see the Tropical Waves section for more information. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds across the Canary Islands and regional waters, with near gale force winds between islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast. The link to their Met Area home page is http://weather.gmdss.org/II.hmtl. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a series of surface highs along 33N. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the southern periphery of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Nelson