000 AXNT20 KNHC 060530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl, a tiny tropical cyclone, is centered near 10.4N 44.0W at 06/0300 UTC or about 1055 nm ESE of the Lesser Antilles, moving W 12 knots. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will remain east of the Lesser Antilles through Sunday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beryl could become a hurricane today. Then, Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a strong open trough just east of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. Please, see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. While Beryl is still expected to dissipate as a tropical cyclone by Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles, there will likely be some rain and wind impacts on those islands early next week. A well-defined low pressure system located about midway between the southeastern United States and Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward then northward off the coast of North Carolina. Although the system is forecast to interact with a frontal zone early next week, it could linger off the southeast U.S. coast where some additional development is possible. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more information. A Gale Warning is in effect across the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. A recent scatterometer pass provides observations of minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia, particularly from 10N-14N between 73W-78W. An altimeter pass indicates seas to near 11 ft within the area of gale force winds. Seas are forecast to further build to 14-15 ft by early this morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force later this morning. Then, winds will reach near gale force each night near the coast of Colombia through Sun night. Please, see latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis is along 24W from 03N-17N. Convection is limited near the wave's axis due to the presence of Saharan dust. Another tropical wave is along 56W from 04N-16N. the wave shows up well in the moisture product and long-term satellite imagery. The wave is enhancing some convection over French Guiana and Suriname. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea. Its axis is along 82W S of 20N to western Panama. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted just ahead of the wave's axis covering the area from 15N-18N between 83W-86W. Part of this convective activity is affecting NE Honduras. Similar convection is also seen over the NW Caribbean from 19N-21N between 85W-87W. Moisture associated with this wave will reach the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize today. This wave will move west of the area by Sat. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N20W to 09N30W to 10N38W. The ITCZ is along 08N46W to 06N56W. Aside from the convection associated with T.S. Beryl and the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N-10N between 12W-16W, and from 06N-11N between 29W-39W, ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted over much of the northern Gulf waters, and in the Bay of Campeche. This convective activity is the result of a surface trough along 91W, interacting with an upper-level low spinning near 28N92W. The trough will move westward across the northern Gulf waters, reaching the coast of Texas Fri night. Plenty of moisture will remain in place across the northern Gulf, and the Gulf Coast States in association with these features through Sat. A thermal trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and enhance nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf through Sun. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf waters this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning has been issued near the coast of Colombia. Please, see Special Features section for details. A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more information. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong winds across the east and central Caribbean, with minimal gale force winds just off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trades are expected across much of the area S of 18N between 70W and 83W through Sat. Winds will reach near gale force each night near the coast of Colombia through Sun night. Winds and seas are forecast to gradually increase E of the Leeward Islands by Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details about Tropical Storm Beryl. Two tropical waves are between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more information. A well-defined low pressure system is located about midway between the southeastern United States and Bermuda. Please, see Special Features section for details. As this low pressure shifts NW of the area today, the Atlantic ridge will build back across the waters E of Florida and the Bahamas. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds across the Canary Islands and regional waters, with near gale force winds between islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast. The link to their Met Area home page is http://weather.gmdss.org/II.hmtl. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N32W. Moderate to fresh winds are around the southern periphery of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR