000 AXNT20 KNHC 051749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression TWO has developed in the Atlantic Ocean. The center of Tropical Depression TWO at 05/1500 UTC is near 10.2N 41.4W, or 1200 nm ESE of The Lesser Antilles, moving W 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 90 nm of the center in the SW semicircle. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W from 16N southward. TPW moisture and long-term satellite imagery mark the tropical wave. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 45W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from 20N in SE Cuba southward, across Jamaica, toward the border of Colombia and Panama. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Windward Passage between Jamaica and Haiti. A tropical wave is inland along 89W/90W, in the Yucatan Peninsula, from 22N southward. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in Belize, and in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from 20N southward from 90W eastward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to 09N22W and 09N33W. The ITCZ is along 06N44W 05N51W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 210 nm on either side of 10N14W 09N24W 08N36W 05N52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N88W, about 100 nm to the south of the Mississippi/Alabama border. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N northward. A surface trough is along 85W/86W from 25N to 30N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, to the NW of 21N97W along the coast of Mexico to the Florida Keys. Scattered low level clouds are from 24N southward between 81W and 87W. These clouds have been moving northward from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, into the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The 85W/86W surface trough will move westward across the northern Gulf waters, reaching the coast of Texas on Friday night. A surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and enhance nocturnal winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving through the area. Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are covering the area that extends from 15N in Honduras to 17N between 83W and 85W. Other isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 80W westward. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is about 110 nm to the east of eastern Honduras. Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire area from 500 nm to 700 mb. The Cuba/Jamaica tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea will move to the west of the area by Saturday. The wind speeds will reach near gale force near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through Sunday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details about Tropical Depression TWO, near 10.2N 41.4W, 1009 mb, at 05/1500 UTC. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 32N76W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward between 70W and land. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that extends from the coast of Cuba to the NW Bahamas near 27N between 76W and 81W. Similar rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 26N to 32N between 65W and 80W. A surface trough is along 34N68W, through 32N70W, to 27N76W, to the west and southwest of Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development through the end of the week, while the system moves west- northwestward and then northward 10 mph off the coast of North Carolina. The area of low pressure is forecast to interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any additional development. An upper level trough is along 71W/72W from 25N to 30N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that extends from 23N to 27N between 59W and 63W. The surface trough, that is to the west and southwest of Bermuda, will shift NW of the area on Friday. Surface high pressure will build across the region in the wake of the trough. The winds that are to the N of Hispaniola will pulse to strong each afternoon and evening during the remainder of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT