000 AXNT20 KNHC 051205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 16N southward. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 10.5N. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within a 15 nm to 30 nm radius of 10N41W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 03N to 11N between 35W and 50W. It is possible that some of the precipitation that is between 45W and 50W easily may be more related to the 46W/47W tropical wave and the ITCZ. The forecast for this system is that upper level winds will become unfavorable, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK gives the system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 16N southward. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 45W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, from 20N southward. The tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola, NW Venezuela and NE Colombia. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 22N southward. The tropical wave is moving through the eastern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from 80W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the W coast of Africa near 13N17W then continues to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W to 06N56W. widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are within 240 nm on either side of 10N14W 07N40w 04N51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and tstms are noted over Florida and the eastern Gulf, particularly N of 24N E of 91W. This convective activity is the result of a surface trough, interacting with an upper-level trough that extends from the NE Gulf to the central Bay of Campeche. Convection has also flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula just ahead of the trough aloft. The surface trough has moved from the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf. A recent ASCAT pass shows the trough axis along 84W. The trough will move westward across the northern Gulf waters, reaching the Texas coast Fri night. Plenty of moisture will remain in place across the northern Gulf, and the Gulf Coast States in association with this trough through Fri. this will keep the likelihood of showers and tstms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A thermal trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and enhance nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong winds across the east and central Caribbean while an altimeter pass indicates seas near to 11 ft across the Caribbean waters S of Haiti. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong trades are expected across much of the area S of 18N and E of 83W through at least Fri. Winds will reach near gale force near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles to the SW of Bermuda are associated with a weak trough of low pressure. This system appears to be less organized, and the potential for a tropical depression to form is diminishing. However, environmental conditions are still conducive for some development before the end of the week, while the system moves west- northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. The disturbance is then forecast to interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any additional development. This system has now a low chance of tropical cyclone development based on latest Tropical Weather Outlook. Two tropical waves are between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure centered W of the Azores near 36N36W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. As the high pressure builds westward across the western Atlantic through the weekend, winds N of Hispaniola will pulse to strong each afternoon and evening the remainder of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT